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Bayes, An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances

An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances is a work on the mathematical theory of probability by Thomas Bayes, published in 1763, two years after its author’s death, and containing multiple amendments and additions due to his friend Richard Price. The title comes from the contemporary use of the phrase “doctrine of chances” to mean the theory of probability, which had been introduced via the title of a book by Abraham de Moivre. Contemporary reprints of the Essay carry a more specific and significant title: A Method of Calculating the Exact Probability of All Conclusions founded on Induction.

The essay includes theorems of conditional probability which form the basis of what is now called Bayes’s Theorem, together with a detailed treatment of the problem of setting a prior probability.

 

 

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